Giá vàng lao dốc 4,78% trong tuần, mức giảm mạnh nhất kể từ tháng 6, khi kỳ vọng nâng lãi suất của Fed gây áp lực lên kim loại quý

Hammered by persistently above-forecast inflation data and mounting expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, international gold prices suffered a sharp selloff this week, with spot gold on track for its biggest weekly decline since June. As of 4:10 p.m. New York time on Friday, spot gold was at $3,876 an ounce, unchanged from late Thursday in New York, down 4.78% for the week. In the prior session, gold briefly touched a 13-month low.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index exceeded market expectations for a third consecutive month, prompting traders to reprice the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. On Tuesday, the market began pricing in the possibility of a single 50-basis-point hike in December, and bets on further hikes in 2027 were also raised markedly. Rising rate expectations pushed US Treasury yields higher, and the dollar strengthened accordingly. Because gold generates no interest income and is priced in dollars, both higher yields and a stronger dollar weigh directly on the metal.

Federal Reserve officials collectively delivered hawkish signals this week. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a single 50-basis-point hike if inflation continues to accelerate. New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Boston Fed President Susan Collins also successively called for further action to curb inflation.

The precious metals complex came under broad pressure. Silver fell 2.36% on Friday and declined for the week; platinum moved lower, while palladium edged higher.

Despite the evident near-term selling pressure, institutional views on gold's longer-term outlook are diverging. Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, noted that the gold bull camp—including macro funds, ETFs and central banks—has shown limited buying momentum recently, making the market increasingly vulnerable to repricing of Fed rate-hike expectations. But he also stressed that strong support for gold remains: overall positioning among non-trend-following investors has not shown clear signs of liquidation, and the price decline may once again attract this cohort of investors, who remain focused on long-term currency debasement and de-dollarization, to enter the market.

From a market-structure perspective, the near-term trajectory of energy-price-driven inflation and comments from Federal Reserve officials will continue to dominate gold's price action.

The following table compares the performance of major precious metals this week:

Note: Spot gold quotes are as of 4:10 p.m. New York time on Friday, at $3,876 an ounce.

For investors, the core trigger for this round of adjustment is that sticky inflation has shattered the market's earlier optimistic assumption of a monetary policy pivot. The repricing of rate-hike expectations directly raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and also reinforces the dollar's appeal. In the near term, whether gold prices can stabilize depends on whether subsequent inflation data show signs of cooling and whether Federal Reserve officials' comments before the December policy meeting shift further hawkish. Whether medium- and long-term capital re-enters after the price pullback, as some institutions expect, will be a key observation point for judging the nature of this selloff.