Tuyên bố về thủy lôi tại Hormuz của Iran có ý nghĩa gì đối với dầu mỏ: các vụ tấn công tàu chở dầu trong tuần, chế độ cấp phép quá cảnh và những điểm cần theo dõi vào thứ Hai

Iran's armed forces said on Saturday, Nov. 14, that three more oil tankers hit naval mines and caught fire in and near the Strait of Hormuz ( our report ) [4] . It was at least the fifth straight day of Iranian claims of strikes on shipping, and like nearly all of them it came with no vessel names and no independent confirmation [15] .

Brent rose 3.3% on Thursday after a four-tanker claim and then finished the week about 2.5% lower, as data from the International Energy Agency and shipping monitors showed Gulf exports recovering despite the attacks [8] [7] . This explainer sets out what was claimed, what was confirmed, how Iran's transit regime works and what to watch when trading resumes.

Tue Nov 10 Claim Didamar navigation systems Iranian state media said the IRGC destroyed "enemy navigation systems" on Oman's Didamar island [1] . Claim Tanker hits mine The IRGC said a tanker exploded after using a route Tehran had not authorized. Unconfirmed [2] . Confirmed Tanker hit off the UAE UKMTO said a strike hit a tanker's engine room 14 nautical miles northwest of Ras al-Khaimah and the crew was evacuated [5] . Claim Navy tanker claim Iran's navy said a tanker caught fire after hitting a mine east of the strait. Unconfirmed [2] . Thu Nov 12 Claim Four tankers The IRGC said two supertankers were burning after an explosion; the army said two more hit mines. No ships were named [3] . Market Brent up 3.3% Brent settled at $95.82 after the claims and Houthi attack claims on Saudi oil sites [8] . Fri Nov 13 Claim Gas carrier The IRGC said a liquefied gas carrier hit a mine and released smoke footage. Unconfirmed [6] . Data IEA and UKMTO The IEA said the market is back in surplus; UKMTO counted seven tanker attacks in the week to Nov. 11 [7] [5] . Sat Nov 14 Claim Three tankers The IRGC said two tankers hit a mine in the south of the strait; the navy said a third hit one to the east. Unconfirmed [4] [15] .

Iranian state media said the IRGC destroyed "enemy navigation systems" on Oman's Didamar island [1] .

The IRGC said a tanker exploded after using a route Tehran had not authorized. Unconfirmed [2] .

UKMTO said a strike hit a tanker's engine room 14 nautical miles northwest of Ras al-Khaimah and the crew was evacuated [5] .

Iran's navy said a tanker caught fire after hitting a mine east of the strait. Unconfirmed [2] .

The IRGC said two supertankers were burning after an explosion; the army said two more hit mines. No ships were named [3] .

Brent settled at $95.82 after the claims and Houthi attack claims on Saudi oil sites [8] .

The IRGC said a liquefied gas carrier hit a mine and released smoke footage. Unconfirmed [6] .

The IEA said the market is back in surplus; UKMTO counted seven tanker attacks in the week to Nov. 11 [7] [5] .

The IRGC said two tankers hit a mine in the south of the strait; the navy said a third hit one to the east. Unconfirmed [4] [15] .

The confirmed record is thinner than the claimed one. UKMTO, the British military's maritime liaison office, said in its Nov. 13 weekly overview that at least seven tankers were attacked in and around the strait in the week to Nov. 11; of eight incidents, three vessels continued their voyage, three needed assistance, two had unknown outcomes and none was reported sunk [5] . It did not attribute them to mines. The UN told the Security Council on Friday that 25 seafarers have been killed in 134 confirmed maritime incidents in the region since February, citing International Maritime Organization data [14] .

Shipping authorities have disputed earlier Iranian mine claims. In October the Joint Maritime Information Center said there was "no substantiation" for an IRGC claim that two supertankers hit mines, and it attributed the sinking of the containership GFS Pride, which Iran had blamed on a mine, to an unknown projectile [11] .

Since the war with the US and Israel began on Feb. 28, Tehran has required ships to obtain its authorization to cross the strait and has attacked vessels that do not comply [16] . The IRGC calls the southern corridor near the Omani coast an unauthorized route, says it is mined, and tells shipowners and crews they are responsible for using it [12] . Its statements typically say the ships hit had switched off their AIS transponders or radar, as Saturday's did [4] .

Washington's answer is a naval blockade of Iranian ports and military escorts for tankers using the strait [16] . US Central Command said on Oct. 28 that all internationally recognized primary transit routes "have been cleared of sea mines by U.S. forces and remain so" and that thousands of commercial vessels have used them safely [10] . It said in late October that it had helped Gulf countries export 1.5 billion barrels of oil through Hormuz since the summer [12] . On Nov.

Monday, Nov. 9, not shown.

The IEA's figures show supply recovering despite the attacks. Its November Oil Market Report said global supply rose 2.3 million barrels a day to 105.4 million b/d in October and overtook demand for the first time since the war began; Gulf exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million b/d, still 26% below pre-war levels ( our report ) [7] . The agency also warned that "attacks on shipping undermine maritime security, which is pivotal to a sustained recovery," that on-land stocks are at their lowest since at least 2016, and that freight rates for Middle East crude bound for Asia held near records in October [7] .

The US Energy Information Administration's November outlook expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel in November and December ( our report ) [9] [17] . Brent's Tuesday settlement of $91.49 was its lowest since August, and Thursday's jump on the four-tanker claims held into Friday without extending [8] .

Saturday's claims landed with markets shut, so Brent futures reopening Sunday evening US time will be the first market reading. Brent last settled at $95.84 [8] .

UKMTO and JMIC advisories, shipowner statements or ship-tracking data naming any of the three tankers would show whether Saturday's claims match real incidents [5] [11] .

Trump is due to discuss the Iran war with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at their three-way meeting in Shenzhen on Thursday, Nov. 19 [14] .