US flour production falls 1.3% in Q3 as wheat milling slows ...

According to data released on November 2 by the US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service ( USDA -NASS), total flour production reached 104.863 million hundredweight (cwt) between July and September 2026, down 1.367 million cwt from 106.230 million cwt in the same period in 2025.

The latest decline marks a return to the quarter-on-quarter downward production trend that has characterized the industry since early 2025, interrupted only by a modest increase in the second quarter of 2026.

Third-quarter output was also the lowest recorded for the July-September period in approximately 20 years.

Despite lower production, the industry’s installed milling capacity expanded.

Daily 24-hour flour production capacity increased by 1.6% to 1.629 million cwt, compared with 1.603 million cwt in the third quarter of 2025.

This indicates that additional milling capacity has not yet translated into higher flour output.

US flour mills operated at 83.6% of their six-day production capacity during the quarter, compared with 86.1% in the same period last year.

Although this improved from 82.7% in the second quarter of 2026, utilization remained below last year’s level.

The production decline was accompanied by a drop in wheat consumption by mills. Wheat ground for flour totalled 227.003 million bushels during the third quarter, down 4.399 million bushels, or 1.9%, from 231.402 million bushels in the corresponding period of 2025.

Millfeed production, a by-product used primarily in animal feed formulations, also fell 2% to 1.63 million tonnes, from 1.66 million tonnes a year earlier.

Semolina production contracted more sharply, falling 6% to 7.222 million cwt from 7.717 million cwt in the third quarter of 2025.

The decline points to reduced durum wheat processing activity, with potential implications for downstream pasta manufacturers and other food processors reliant on semolina supplies.

Excluding semolina, flour production reached 97.641 million cwt, down 0.9% from 98.513 million cwt a year earlier.

Milling capacity utilization for this segment fell to 84.5%, down from 87.2% in the third quarter of 2025.

Meanwhile, second-quarter 2026 flour production was revised upwards slightly to 103.683 million cwt from the previously reported 103.464 million cwt.

However, the revision does little to change the broader picture of subdued flour manufacturing activity.

The figures highlight a growing gap between available milling infrastructure and actual production levels.

Although US flour millers have increased installed capacity, lower wheat grinding volumes and declining utilization suggest the industry continues to struggle to maintain production momentum.

For grain traders, flour manufacturers and equipment suppliers, the latest figures provide an important indication of demand for wheat processing and milling services in one of the world’s major grain markets.

Continued monitoring of flour output, wheat utilization and mill capacity will be important in assessing the industry’s performance heading into the final quarter of 2026.